Saturday, October 5, 2013

The Stupidity Of Vote Split Theory

A lot of murmur, discussions and screams have been going around the Social Media that Aam Aadmi Party is going to help Congress win Delhi elections, by cutting down the vote share of BJP. I find this theory utterly absurd and it really deserves a thrashing.

Before the Modi's Delhi rally in Japani Park, there was this article - Cut Out The Vote Cutters in a pro-BJP (pro-Modi?) website. Also, a lot of tweets are going around blaming AAP to cut he votes of BJP etc etc







and so on ... The tweets blaming that AAP would cut the BJP votes never end.

To counter this, let me start from the very basic of a democracy.

Q: What exactly is a Vote?
Ans: A vote is a symbol of trust of the electorate towards another individual who is claiming to represent him/her in the assembly/parliament. By voting for X, the electorate declares that I trust X and I want him/her to represent me.

That's it. Vote is Trust.


However, most political parties and their supporters have now forgotten this basic definition, specially BJP and its supporters. Now they think that they have the 'rightful claim' to the anti-incumbent vote. Oh please, there is never anything like that in Democracy.

Vote doesn't belong to anyone but the voter. A leader who wins the trust of voter wins his vote.

BJP, specially Delhi BJP has been been totally lazy, lethargic, laid back and corrupt in its ways since last 15 years. Thanks to MCD which is ruled by Delhi BJP, there has been no shortage of funds to it and thanks to 20-25 Delhi assembly seats, they have had reasonable hold of Delhi. So they had both - reasonable power and reasonable money. Thanks to the current political system, this is what Politician seek and as Delhi BJP had it. In any case, they never bothered to fight for the common man.

News about Delhi MCD in 2009 - MCD tops in corruption cases, followed by Delhi govt and DDA
News about Delhi MCD in 2010 - Anti Corruption Branch finds Delhi Police, MCD most corrupt

The result was evident - 15 years of Congress. Things have been stinking in Delhi, and after AAP was formed which is fighting for the common man, it became obvious that AAP would trust of the Delhites, and hence, their votes.

Let me come to the so-called vote-split theory once again. What exactly is a vote-split or vote-cut? How would you define it?
     Vote-split happens when people who were trusting your party, because of certain individuals in your party, don't vote for you after those individuals leave your party.
Yeddyurappa is a classic example. When he left BJP, he took his supporters and hence their votes along with him.

Was AAP anytime a part of BJP - Nah
Was any of the AAP top leaders anytime a part of BJP - Nah

Last I heard, AAP was building up from scratch and it is not a splinter group. Every vote AAP will get would be every vote earned. Period.

You know, BJP has got its basics wrong. As mentioned before, they think they have the fundamental right to the anti-incumbent vote, and even if they have done nothing for the common man, they should get it. This assumption is the exact reason for the steady decline of BJP since last 10-15 years. They relax, wait for the current government to make mistakes, while they themselves do nothing, and when the elections come, they jump around thinking voters would now automatically vote for BJP.

HELLO! The common man doesn't think this way, genius! Another big mistake would be to assume the common man of India does not understand politics. He knows every bit of it. BJP does get some votes, but that is due to desperation or hopelessness of common man towards current system, and not due to trust or merit.

Bad news BJP, in Delhi AAP is there, and outside Delhi, NOTA is there. Forget about the automatic-anti-incumbent-votes now. The only way BJP can beat AAP is by becoming better than AAP and winning hearts. Instead it's wasting time cribbing and crying. Till BJP cries about so-called vote cutters, it'll not deserve votes and won't get votes.The assumption that you'll automatically get anti-incumbent-vote depicts just one thing - You Are Lazy!

Do you want to know why AAP deserves vote? Here, read the few articles:
     Tracking Arvind
     Volunteers to spread Aam Aadmi Party's message
     The Organic Growth Story Of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) On Social Media
     Aam Aadmi Party: The Incorruptibles?
     AAP took baby steps on social media, now it’s a runaway hit

And if all these didn't make sense to you, please read and understand what AAP has to provide to the Indian Political System

Liked the article? Want to help Aam Aadmi Party? Thinking of donating? Do it here - Donate4AAP

13 comments:

  1. Well written.. BJP folks should read it. They should understand that no one is born to vote BJP. Everyone makes their own decision.

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  2. Kah ke le lii bjpeeee walo ki

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  3. BJP is no different from Congress. also, BJP feels that if congress is voted-out then its their birth-right to come into power, irrespective of what they did for the nation/state/citizens, this kind of thought itself is crime. BJP must be kicked-out now along with its big-brother congress.

    In 1947 itself, MK Gandhi told clearly to JN Nehru that congress must be finished now, let the new model of 'swaraj' should come-in.

    MK Gandhi couldn't do it that time, but after 67 years, one 'aam-aadmi' stand-up and challenged the corrupt-system, and this man is Arvind Kejriwal.

    Funny thing is BJP (read vijay goal) start CRYING, yes, CRYING when he see that aam-aadmi is going to throw him out now. This crying baby is deep into MCD corruption since last 7 years with Shiela's congress state government, their he doesn't cried. He deserve (along with Shiela) to be thrown out now.

    Get lost criminals, Get lost corrupts, Get lost you blood suckers, JUST Get Lost.

    #AAP is the future. come-along build it, build it for a better tomorrow.

    Jai Hind !!

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  4. It's amazing the foolishness and stupidity and arrogance of AAP and its supporters...
    1) Party in power is Congress... the most corrupt govt India has ever seen in its history.. Instead of maintaining extreme pressure on Congress. AAP "helps" ease the pressure off it by bringing BJP into the equation...
    2) The idiotic, mindless refrain of BJP-Congress that one hears frm poorly informed ,( Kejriwal and Yogendra Yadav brainwashed ), very impressionable young ppl is unsubstantiated and sometimes downright slander and lies
    3) The attempt to lecture on "democracy" in this post is a supercilious attempt to "Talk down" without introspection.
    4)What gives rise tovsuch arrogance? AAP has ZERO experience in governance... they actually believe BILLS will solve problems!!
    5)The fact that the vote opposing the venal Congress govt WILL most certainly get divided is not a theory that Einstein needs to discover (obviously as the exercise of freedom of choice---as if that was under debate?!). The Question is what does AAP achieve by splintering the vote?
    a) prevent consolidation against Cong misrule
    b) hung verdict
    6) BJP MCD is /is not corrupt is being clubbed with Assembly elections?? I for one would have expected AAP to fight the next MCD elections and try n oust BJP! ... but it doesnt suit the agenda of Yogendra Yadav and Kejriwal!

    Just a little unsolicited advice.. stop pontificating... stop fooling , gullible, desparate everyday folks..

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    Replies
    1. Response to your bullets
      1) Why are also attacking BJP along with ruling party Congress: Congress has already dug its grave by corruption and lack of administration. So, people are looking for alternative. All we are saying is BJP is no different from congress. Earlier people had no choice, they chose lesser evil. To day delhi people have choice, they don't have have to vote lesser evil. There is AAP.
      2)Idiotic, mindless refrain by AK, YY? Its your perception. Most youths on social media have a perception that AK and YY speak the truth, from heart.
      3)This post perfectly answers two questions related to 'democracy'. Q1. What is vote? Q2. What is vote-split or vote-cut? Pls re-read post
      4)AAP has zero experience? What is your job madam? A journalist? If yes, what was your experience before you got your first Journalist job? BJP also din't have experience when they first formed party. For that matter it applies to anything in life.
      5) Your assumption that 'vote opposing venal congress govt' were rightfully belonged to BJP is wrong assumption. Now that NOTA button is available for voters, don't blame that NOTA is going to cut BJP's vote share.
      a)Why are you suggesting AAP take the responsibility of 'preventing consolidation against Cong misrule', Instead AAP takes responsibility of "Preventing corrupt/criminals getting into delhi Assembly", be it congress, bjp or AAP itself.
      b)hung verdict is your speculation, please wait till Dec 8th
      6)We have clubbed BJP MCD corruption to explain to the voters that BJP is no different. We would definitely fing next MCD elections. YY and AK have no where said that AAP is not contesting next MCD elections.

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    2. Replies to RP:

      1 - We are attacking both BJP Congress. We are taking blame from both BJP Congress. We are putting pressure on both BJP Congress. Both see that we are helping the other team. Nothing new in this cribbing.

      2 - List them down and rebut. No need to put this over the blog on *Votes*.

      3 - I am not talking anyone down. I am telling what exactly is a *vote*. If you can counter that, then counter that

      4 - Yes I would be sounding arrogant when I remind the much experienced politicians about the basics of democracy. I am totally fine with that. Please curse me.

      5 - Anti-Congress vote is not a BJP's god given right.
      a: Please fight for 2-party system.
      b: Hung verdict is bad? Really? That is what democracy is all about. Again, please fight for the 2-party system.

      6 - Delhi BJP is corrupt in MCD and they would be the same if they come in power in Delhi assembly. Please ignore this fact as you worship Modi.

      Thanks but no thanks for your advise as there is no susbtance in it. I am using simple language, I am telling simple facts. Complicating things and using complex language to confuse people is just not me.

      A word of advice - If you want to connect with 'desparate everyday folks', try to use a simple language. Showing off TOEFL skills puts off 90% of Indians (no, that is not coming from Justice Katju).

      ~ bb

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  5. Dear Rati,

    I am 100% sure that, you are replying without even reading this blog.

    Even the comments about yours says the same.

    yours 1st point itself enough to prove you are mindless, rest we can just safely ignore.

    thanks,
    AS

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  6. Very well written Bharat. But more than AAPians, the bjp wallas need to read this.

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  7. I take issue with 3 points.
    1. Vote is trust: No, vote is a tool for change in a democracy. The direction of vote is decided by perception. Media, sources of information and influence direct that perception. These sources can be bought, paid and managed. You might feel that AAP earns its votes, but by pointless mudslinging bordering on slander to tap an enraged anti-incumbent vote, your tactics are not too far better than the BJP which "Hopes" for Anti-Incumbency
    2. With 90% of your tweets going at the BJP in trends, it is no mean assumption that the AAP is an ally of Congress. This is added to by outright claims from your leaders that they will not attack the congress. (I have screenshots of your leaders tweeting this)
    3. Your personal inability to engage people on twitter and instead share them across forums where you feel safe that you will not be attacked, rebutted or bullied. So next time, you feel the need to bash an opinion, muster up some courage and tweet to the person whose opinion you want to "bash".

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    Replies
    1. 1. "Vote is a tool, decided by perception and perception depends upon the paid media", so ... as per you "Vote basically corresponds to amount of money spent" .. Right ... No matter how much money you spend, you cannot win the trust of the people unless you work for the people and connect with them. All that sleaze campaigns fail without substance. Such things cannot be sustained in a long run. You want to debate upon 'My tactics" ... fine, go ahead. I hope that earns you some votes.

      2. LOL ... 90% tweets ... fine fine ... And I am ally of Congress, dude ... get a life. And about my leaders saying they will not attach congress? whatever, just read this news - http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/no-witch-hunting-if-bjp-comes-to-power-in-delhi-polls-says-harsh-vardhan/articleshow/25262248.cms

      3. I don't have time for useless twitter fights, true that. And did you just admit that BJP guys bully on Twitter? Ahem. 140 characters are not enough to put my points. Anyways, this reply is not for you, but for the other readers. You surely are not going to be convinced. :-)

      ~bb

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    2. 1. "All that sleaze campaigns fail without substance" precisely my point. Sleaze is all AAP has thrown up. Secondly, do pay attention to how close AAP and CNNIBN are. The unfathomed love of Rajdeep and Sagarika is for all to notice. And these guys were previously congi stooges, were they not? What inspires this love is anyone's guess
      2. Yes, you are congress allies. With CVoter and Yashwant deshmukh clearly stating that anything around 20% vote share will hit only the BJP. how much more you get is a matter to be debated.
      3. half of your bedfellows start their first counter argument with Raghu's language training 101. Who has the most abusers is hardly a matter of debate.

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    3. 1. There are PILs against 2G, Coalscam, Azam Khan and even the new CAG (hand picked by Congress) by AAP. Counter that.
      2. @cvoter is the twitter handle of Yashwant Deshmukh, they are one and the same. And I don't trust him, you do as he is a decendant of a RSS head.
      3. You talked about bullying, not me. "Bedfellows"? Too much porn?

      ~ bb

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  8. Nice, simple, to the point, conveys what you want to in a simple AAM AADMI language.

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